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Will winter snow scenes ever be the same again?
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| Snowdrifts are so high that they almost meet the icicles coming down from this house roof in February of 1958. |
Within the lifetime of many of us today snow could become a distant memory - unknown even in the Scottish mountains.
On the other hand we could be heading for a mini ice age with temperatures plunging to well below minus 10C.
Such are the vagaries of predicting the weather.
But one thing does seem certain - there are some pretty significant changes already taking place and more are on the way.
We've all heard the old adage that winters aren't what they used to be - and anyone who doubts that need only glance at the photographs and read the stories in a newly published book by weathermen Ian McCaskill and Paul Hudson.
Frozen in Time - the Years When Britain Shivered looks back on the days when winters really were winters, and snowdrifts were as high as houses.
The book - published by an Ilkley company - takes readers back to 'The Year of No summer', 'The Famine Winter' and the years when 'Frost Fairs' were held on the frozen Thames.
And it records the stories of those who lived through the three worst winters of the 20th Century - 1947, the snowiest winter ever recorded, when blizzards raged for weeks on end, and snowdrifts cut off large parts of the country; 1963 - the coldest winter ever recorded when the sea froze for 100 yards offshore and millions of farm animals and wild creatures froze or starved to death; and the 1979 Winter of Discontent when the savage snows and frosts were made worse by the strikes that paralysed Britain.
The Siberian-like conditions of 1947 are etched on the memory of Ian McCaskill who was just eight years old at the time.
"I was a little boy then and the snow was higher than me," he said. "I have lived through them all and the memories are quite vivid still."
He brings a unique perspective to all three severe winters, having lived through one as a child and reported on the others as a meteorologist and BBC weather forecaster.
And he was keen to record people's memories of that winter before they are lost for ever. His personnel recollections also led him to investigate other severe winter periods in British history and to ask the question whether they will ever return.
And he said: "We do feel, Paul and I, that these winters will never happen again."
As we approach the 60th anniversary of the 1947 winter the two weathermen were keen to get the memories down before they disappeared for ever, so that future generations would know what it was really like.
The younger generation are already finding it hard to believe that such severe conditions ever existed in this country, according to the two weathermen.
"There are children out there who have never seen proper snow," Ian said.
It's a scenario familiar to Paul Hudson who has also heard of cases where children have found it difficult to comprehend that there were ever such wintry conditions in this country.
"We're coming up to the 60th anniversary of the worst winter of the last century," he said. "We don't get winters like we used to do, so historically we thought it was a good time to do the book before snow becomes extinct all together."
"If the Gulf stream continues then by about 2070 there will be no snow on the Scottish mountains, never mind anywhere else."
But the continuation of the Gulf stream is itself in doubt in some quarters - and if it does switch off the consequences will be dramatic.
While the main body of scientific thinking predicts warmer and wetter winters, with more frequent and violent storms, a small but growing minority' of scientists take the view that global warming may plunge Britain into much colder winters.
In the book Paul Hudson says: "Our shores are kept artificially warm by the action of the Gulf Stream, a huge conveyor of warm water stretching from its source in the Gulf of Mexico to our coastline. If it wasn't for this, Britain - on the same latitude as Canada - would have a very much colder climate and because we are surrounded by water, it would be pretty grey and miserable as well, with copious amounts of snow."
But there are fears that melting ice sheets are diluting the seawater and could lead to a shutdown of the gulf stream - leaving central England at risk of temperatures regularly well below minus 10C.
He adds: "A recent report in the New Scientist stated that the ocean current that gives Western Europe its relatively balmy climate is already stuttering, raising fears that it might fail and plunge the continent into a mini ice age."
Paul stressed that no-on knew for sure what was going to happen. But he said last year, for the first time, the Met Office had included in a pamphlet it produced the Gulf stream theory as one of the scenarios that could happen.
Perhaps this uncertainty about the future contributes in part to the huge interest already being shown in the book.
It is Paul's third book, and he believes they have hit on a winning formula. Both he and Ian are amazed at the interest which has been shown in the book.
"We seem to have tapped into something which is very close to the readers hearts," he said.
"There is a nostalgia associated with severe winters - even if it is young people who can't quite remember how bad it used to be .
"People seem to have an unending fascination with the weather."
Paul, who is already thinking about another book called Storms of the Century, said: "When you look in bookshops you see cookery books, because people enjoy cooking, and you see walking books because people enjoy walking - but nothing about the weather. There are no weather books even though it's a national obsession and everyone knows it is.
"It is almost like an untapped market that we have stumbled across."
l Frozen in Time is available from Great Northern Books for £15.99 (plus postage and packing), telephone 01274 735056, or at www.greatnorthernbooks.co.uk
1:38pm Thursday 14th December 2006
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CommentPosted by: ed, portsmouth on 9:12am Sun 4 Feb 07
i can't believe that snow drift picture!!!
could i have other peoples comments on whether u think britain will get colder or warmer,quite franckley i would like it to get colder
i can't believe that snow drift picture!!!
could i have other peoples comments on whether u think britain will get colder or warmer,quite franckley i would like it to get colder
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